一 | IT之家 7 月 21 日消息，埃隆 · 马斯克日前在社交平台 X 上发文警告称，长期持有 SpaceX 大量空头头寸的机构，“最终存活下来的概率非常低”。 这番表态正值 SpaceX 上市后股价出现波动之际。在被称为“史上最大 IPO”的上市五周后，SpaceX 股价较市值峰值已回落约 30%。 KYIV -- Ukrainian forces are trying to hold off a major new Russian offensive operation in the strategic city of Avdiivka.Russia sent dozens of tanks and armored vehicles and thousands of troops into the assault, which started four days ago."They are hitting with everything they have. Yesterday a lot of armor was used, they came in columns. The assault isn’t stopping neither day or night," Vitaliy Barabash, the head of Avdiivka’s military administration, said on Ukrainian television.Russia has also launched smaller offensive operations at points all along the front line, intensifying an offensive near the city of Kupiansk, which Ukraine liberated last year, according to Ukrainian troops on the ground.But the main attack is on Avdiivka, which holds major strategic significance for both sides. Avdiivka is located close to Donetsk, the capital of the Russian-occupied Donetsk region.Ukraine heavily fortified the line at Avdiivka prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion last year, constructing deep trenches and a system of underground bunkers. As a result, Russian forces have barely advanced near the city.Russia now appears to be seeking to cut off Avdiivka and surround the Ukrainian forces inside its defenses."For the entire time of the war, there has never been such an offensive around Avdiivka, even though they’ve attacked Avdiivka since 2014," Oleksiy Dmitrashkivsky, chief spokesman for the Command of Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces, told ABC News.He said two Russian battalions, numbering around 2,000 men and backed by dozens of tanks and other armored vehicles, had begun the attacks, pushing from the northwest and southwest. A massive artillery and air barrage had preceded the assault and has continued since, with frequent strikes on the city itself.So far the Russian assault has appeared to have gone badly, according to Ukrainian military officials and open source researchers tracking the losses.Barabash, Avdiivka’s military administration chief, said at least 40 Russian armored vehicles had been lost in two days. Videos circulating online of the attacks appeared to largely support those claims, with some open source researchers saying 30 to 50 Russian tanks and other vehicles had been damaged or destroyed.Ukraine’s general staff claimed over 1,000 Russian troops had been killed and injured since the new offensive operation began.The Institute for the Study of War said Russia had managed to capture roughly 4.52 square kilometers of territory from different directions around Avdiivka in the last three days."Russian forces have not secured any major breakthroughs near Avdiivka as of Oct. 12 and are unlikely to immediately cut off Ukrainian forces in the city," ISW wrote in its daily briefing Thursday.Ukrainian military officials said their troops have successfully held the lines, inflicting heavy casualties on the Russian attackers, though Ukrainian casualties were also large.The new Russian offensive -- the scale of which seemed to catch some analysts off-guard -- nonetheless was significant because it appears to show Russia's attempt to regain the initiative in the war."The Russians have decided that they can already start their own counterattack in [the Avdiivka] direction," Dmitrashkivsky said. "They are taking advantage of the fact that the attention of the whole world is on the events in Israel and they have started an active phase along the entire front line."He said the Russian attack near Avdiivka had involved a mixed force of paratroopers and poorly trained forces, as well as so-called Storm Z units -- detachments of convicts sent to fight."They were very weakly prepared and that showed in their losses," Dmitrashkivsky said.The attack had been exceptionally large, he added, requiring huge efforts from Ukrainian troops to blunt it.Most analysts believe Russia likely still lacks the manpower to make significant gains in an offensive, including around Avdiivka. But the push indicated Russia hopes to further blunt Ukraine’s counteroffensive with its own counterpunch, coming as the weather starts to worsen.Ukraine is continuing to press its own attacks in the southern Zaporizhzhia region where its counteroffensive is focused and around the city of Bakhmut.。此前，公司市值一度突破 2.6 万亿美元（IT之家注：现汇率约合 17.62 万亿元人民币），短暂超过微软和亚马逊。股价回调也让做空者获得了约 87 亿美元（现汇率约合 589.69 亿元人民币）的账面收益，但马斯克的最新回应表明，他依然对公司的长期前景充满信心。 马斯克的发言呼应了一份看多 SpaceX 的分析报告。
二 | 该报告认为，随着“星舰”（Starship）持续降低发射成本，未来将催生一个规模达数万亿美元的太空经济。 报告预计，轨道太阳能发电、小行星采矿、轨道数据中心以及火星改造等项目，未来可能创造超过 100 万亿美元的新增市值。
三 | 按照这一设想，SpaceX 将成为整个太空经济的基础设施提供商，其角色类似于云计算领域的 AWS，通过火箭发射、载人运输以及太空数据传输等业务，占据近似垄断的市场地位，并获得持续增长的收入。 事实上，这并不是马斯克第一次公开抨击做空者。
四 | 在特斯拉的发展过程中，马斯克曾多次表示，长期做空特斯拉的人最终将遭受重大损失。2024 年 7 月，他曾表示，一旦特斯拉实现完全自动驾驶，并实现 Optimus 人形机器人大规模量产，“任何仍然持有特斯拉空头仓位的人都会被彻底消灭，甚至包括比尔 · 盖茨。” 更早之前，2018 年，马斯克还曾嘲讽空头称，他们距离“空头仓位爆仓只剩大约三周时间”。
五 | 随后，特斯拉股价确实迎来一轮大幅上涨。
六 | 马斯克还曾公开表示，做空行为会“破坏价值”，甚至一度认为做空“应该被禁止”，因为在他看来，做空本质上是在押注创新和技术进步失败。 不过，批评者认为，马斯克的乐观预期往往带有较强的宣传色彩，尤其是在季度交付量、股价表现等短期指标不及市场预期时，这种说法更容易受到质疑。 尽管如此，马斯克始终坚持同一种观点：做空其旗下公司，本质上是低估了指数级技术进步所带来的长期价值。 对于 SpaceX 的空头而言，马斯克释放的信息十分明确：押注一家致力于实现多星球文明、并试图成为未来太空基础设施核心提供者的公司失败，最终可能让做空机构自身付出沉重代价。
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